Blowin' In The Wind

When I was a kid we could always tell which way the wind was blowing by sticking our finger in our mouth and then holding it up in the air. The side that got cool first was the side being hit by the wind. I sometimes wish that I could hold up my finger and get an indication which way the wind was blowing for our industry. Unfortunately it just isn't that simple.

One way to check the tide is to talk to a lot of people. The only problem with that is the ever present "what's happening to me personally right this minute is the state of the entire industry today" syndrome. To illustrate, I was talking to a friend the other day who was rather down in the mouth about the current (from his/her perspective) state of affairs in our category. This person was concerned about a soft retail environment and the current plague of poor quality frames and the unending barrage of price only dealers. These dealers, contended my friend, were undermining all the work being done by the long term players who are striving to produce quality products and project an upscale image. I then related a conversation I'd had the day before with another well traveled futon furniture person who had told me that almost everyone he/she had spoken to recently had just had an incredibly great sales month in May, quoting increases of as much as eighty percent over last year. The tone of my "down in the mouth" friend's voice changed immediately from totally depressed to ecstatically joyful. Funny, a similar change had come over me the day before. I commented to my friend at how interesting it was that just one positive report, from a person we both trusted, had had such a positive effect on both our attitudes about the present and even the future.

Would this renewed positive attitude ripple through the industry just in time to save us from certain ruin? I doubt it. What will help is the realization that May actually was a great month for many futon retailers. The pattern plays itself out every year. I do see changes in the more subtle aspects of this business, things like regional booms and busts and shifts in and out of the category by national chains and larger retailers, as well as some shakeout in the specialty store ranks. But overall our share of the market seems secure, and still on the upward climb. The basis for this opinion is my continual informal polling of manufacturers, who are right now very busy trying to fill orders. To clarify, let me add that these manufacturers are using words like buried, swamped and other similar expletives which indicate the busy season has begun. Okay, maybe things started a little late this year. The retail segment has been soft for most industries. Why should we be any different? Bottom Line: nothing short of the discovery that futons cause some incurable disease will keep this category from continuing to establish itself as the sofa-bed of the nineties.

Yeah, That's The Ticket

Last year, in this column, (V8N2 Summer 1996) I expressed my opinion on the industry's growth curve. The big unknown was how the traditional furniture stores would handle the futon furniture category. Several have bought into the category and have a real program in place. Unfortunately, many others have chosen to dabble. Many of these companies fail to succeed because of their lack of commitment. But most fail not because of what they are selling but because of how they are selling it, or not selling it, as the case might be. Here are some rather lame excuses I've heard from reps and retailers alike as to why some traditional furniture and bedding retailers say, "futons will never sell in my store":

"I can't spend this much time selling a futon sofa-bed. I don't care if the customer came in looking for one or not." I suppose this sales person has never gone shopping for a new car?

"Do you really expect me to try and sell such a complicated piece of furniture? There are three different parts to this thing." I guess this associate hasn't ever seen a component stereo before. They probably have one of those TVs with the VCR built into it.

"You want me to stock more than ten different covers. People get confused with too many choices." Maybe this sales person has never been to a super market or CD store?

"Futons are low end and I don't do low end." Perhaps this sales person should have gone to the Futon Expo in Phoenix?

I was at a meeting recently with a pair of clients who were at opposing ends of an argument regarding a product they each thought they knew a lot about. The fact is they do know a lot about the product they are trying to sell. The problem was, they were arguing about the marketing issues from their gut and not from any statistical basis. I asked them both to examine their sources. Each one accepted the fact that their opinion was based on what they believed not on what they knew.

(Joe, get to the point.) The point is we need the results of the ongoing FAI survey. If the survey results are not forthcoming we deserve what we get for not stepping up to the plate and doing the right thing. On the other hand, with survey results in place, our industry will have to be recognized as maturing and as a viable category for all types of retail options. Wall Street Journal here we come.

The Futon Expo & The Br'er Rabbit Complex

The stories I could tell. It would make your hare stand on end. You remember old br'er Bear and br'er Fox and their comical attempt to catch br'er Rabbit. The rabbit got away and the bear and fox ended up in the briar patch. Let me put it like this, the Futon Association represents about five hundred and twenty-five member companies, most of whom are in one business, selling futon furniture. Almost all of these companies benefit in some way from the thirteen years of experience the Association has in this category. Within the Association, like any group of this size, there are some extremely divergent views on the how's, why's, what's, who's, when's and where's concerning the Futon Expo. Over the past five years the show has grown in exhibitors, exhibitor space, and attendance – except for attendance at the most recent show where numbers were down a few percentage points. The fact remains, futon furniture is the fastest growing segment in the home furnishings industry. And in a year where San Francisco and High Point attendance was off considerably why shouldn't we feel a bit of a crunch too?

Now comes the Specialty Sleep Association, according to their own press releases, ready to dig in and begin pressing hard to sell space to the futon suppliers for their show in Las vegas. Last May's show in Scottsdale, AZ was their smallest yet, but it did happen. I'm not sure they will be able to get enough space sold to pull off the 1998 show in Las Vegas. With FAI locked into New Orleans, and with a constituency that has picked this city as the number one site for the show, I don't see the Association moving anywhere else this year.

What could happen would be a repeat of this year's situation which would have the SSA attempt to co-locate their show in a smaller venue in New Orleans. Many of the people I've spoken to lately really don't have a problem with this scenario. What finally shakes out is still under discussion and will hopefully be resolved soon.

A Head Of His Time

Last Autumn we used an image by Rod Northcut that is the property of Right-On Futon of Chicago. Mark Bello, President of Right-On sent us the good news last November. Hey its only taken us seven months to straighten this out. How long is that in dog years?