Blowin' In The Wind

When I was a kid we could always tell which way the wind was blowing by sticking our finger in our mouth and then holding it up in the air. The side that got cool first was the side being hit by the wind. I sometimes wish that I could hold up my finger and get an indication which way the wind was blowing for our industry. Unfortunately it just isn't that simple.

One way to check the tide is to talk to a lot of people. The only problem with that is the ever present "what's happening to me personally right this minute is the state of the entire industry today" syndrome. To illustrate, I was talking to a friend the other day who was rather down in the mouth about the current (from his/her perspective) state of affairs in our category. This person was concerned about a soft retail environment and the current plague of poor quality futon frames and the unending barrage of price only dealers.

These dealers, contended my friend, were undermining all the work being done by the long term players who are striving to produce quality products and project an upscale image. I then related a conversation I'd had the day before with another well traveled futon furniture person who had told me that almost everyone he/she had spoken to recently had just had an incredibly great sales month in May, quoting increases of as much as eighty percent over last year.

The tone of my "down in the mouth" friend's voice changed immediately from totally depressed to ecstatically joyful. Funny, a similar change had come over me the day before. I commented to my friend at how interesting it was that just one positive report, from a person we both trusted, had had such a positive effect on both our attitudes about the present and even the future.

Would this renewed positive attitude ripple through the futon industry just in time to save us from certain ruin? I doubt it. What will help is the realization that May actually was a great month for many futon retailers. The pattern plays itself out every year. I do see changes in the more subtle aspects of this business, things like regional booms and busts and shifts in and out of the category by national chains and larger retailers, as well as some shakeout in the specialty store ranks. But overall our share of the market seems secure, and still on the upward climb.

The basis for this opinion is my continual informal polling of manufacturers, who are right now very busy trying to fill orders. To clarify, let me add that these manufacturers are using words like buried, swamped and other similar expletives which indicate the busy season has begun.

Okay, maybe things started a little late this year. The retail segment has been soft for most futon industries. Why should we be any different? Bottom Line: nothing short of the discovery that futons cause some incurable disease will keep this category from continuing to establish itself as the sofa bed of the nineties.

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